Detroit Tigers: Finding Avila's Batting Average as GM

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As the year draws to a close, the Detroit Tigers are climbing back into respectability. Let’s see how Al Avila has done so far in his time as general manager.

One of our fellow sites, Reviewing the Brew, recently did an article on how Brewers GM David Stearns has done as a GM and translated his performance into a batting average. I thought it would be a good idea to do the same for the Detroit Tigers Executive VP of Baseball Ops & General Manager Al Avila.

Why go with this idea? Well, I believe there are two types of Tigers fans. Ones who like what Al Avila has done, and others who have nothing but dislike for every move he has made. While one of our contributors Michael expressed his disappointment for not making a move on the non-tender deadline, it is his right to express what several fans are feeling.

On the other hand, we have to consider budget constraints, and if you notice last year on the signings of Jonathon Schoop and C.J Cron and the callups of Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Isaac Paredes, things can happen very quickly, as we discussed on the podcast on Thursday.

Since Al Avila took over in early August of 2015, a lot has changed. The team went from spending money and trading prospects to stay competitive under Dave Dombrowski to rebuilding through the draft, upgrading their analytics department, and more recently, signing one-year deals to plug holes in the lineup.

So, how are we going to do this? As outlined by the Reviewing the Brew, we are going look at every waiver claim, free-agent signing, and trade Al Avila has made since he was named the Tigers GM. We won’t be able to cover the 2020-21 offseason, of course, and the draft is a different beast that deserves its own articles.

We will classify each transaction as Hit, a Miss, or a Draw. With a Draw, neither side of the trade came away with anything of value.

With that, let’s get started.

Waiver Claims/Rule 5 selections under Al Avila

For this category, this will be hard to classify as Hits as a few of these players came and went without ever seeing game action in a Detroit Tigers uniform. So for this category, which also includes the Rule 5 selections, Avila’s batting average may be lower. What defines a Hit here is if they were able to at least contribute something to the MLB team.

2016 Season:

John Hicks – Hit
Daniel Stumpf – Hit (Rule 5)

2017 Season:

Johnny Barbato – Miss
Victor Reyes – Hit (Rule 5)

2018 Season:

Josh Smoker – Draw
Dustin Peterson – Miss
José Manuel Fernández – Miss
Reed Garrett – Miss (Rule 5)
Brandon Dixon – Hit

2019 Season:

Marcos Diplan – Draw
Troy Stokes Jr – Draw
Rony Garcia – Draw

2020 Season:

Carson Fulmer – Miss
Dereck Rodriguez – Draw

Josh Hicks was a hit to me because he gave you a good first season of production at the plate. He was not much of a defender and he did strike out too much, but it’s hard to call an OPS+ of 102 in his first season a Miss. Stumpf had better K numbers in 2018 and 2019 but was not the steady lefty presence the Tigers needed.

For all the jokes about Victor Reyes among the fanbase, he has quietly been getting better each season since he was drafted in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. Barbato pitched 6 innings, allowing 11 hits and 9 runs after being picked up from Pittsburgh. Not that much was expected from him, but that was his stat line in his time in Detroit so he was a miss.

Brandon Dixon did lead the team in home runs in 2019 and was a utility bat Detroit turned to that season so again, for taking a flyer on a player, they got production for at least one season. Since Detroit has not seen anything from Troy Stokes Jr. and the jury is still out on Rony Garcia, for now, they are Draws. As far as Fernández and Reed Garrett, neither pitcher did much to help the bullpen, and Garrett was returned to the Rangers.

Hits: 4 Misses: 5 Draws: 5

Based on the math, Avila batted .286. Not bad, considering he was just taking flyers on players.

Now we review trades.

Al Aliva’s Batting Average In Trades

For trades, the known variable is that Avila has traded players who were pieces of the playoff run in the early part of the decade. So taking away the anger from Tigers fans, we look at if he was able to get a few Texas Leaguers to drop.

2015 Trades:

Cameron Maybin to Detroit for Ian Krol and Gabe Speier – Hit

Francisco Rodríguez to Detroit for Javier Betancourt and Manny Piña – Hit

Justin Wilson to Detroit for Chad Green and Luis Cessa – Hit

2016 trades:

Kody Eaves to Detroit for Jefry Marte – Draw

Myles Jane and Bobby Wilson to Detroit for Bryan Holaday – Draw

Chad Bell to Detroit for Bobby Wilson – Draw

Erick Aybar to Detroit for Mike Aviles and Kade Scivicque – Draw

Maybin to Angels for Victor Alcantara – Hit

2017 trades:

Mikie Mahtook to Detroit for Drew Smith – Hit

J.D Martinez to Arizona for Dawel Lugo, Jose King, and Sergio Alcántara – Miss

Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes and Jeimer Candelario – Hit

Justin Verlander to Houston for Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, and Jake Rogers – Miss

Justin Upton to the Angels for Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez – Miss

Ian Kinsler to the Angels for Troy Montgomery and Wilkel Hernandez – Miss

2018 trades:

Leonys Martin and Kyle Dowdy to Cleveland for Willi Castro – Hit

Mike Fiers to Oakland for Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore – Draw

2019 trades:

Nick Castellanos to the Cubs for Alex Lange and Paul Richan – Draw

Shane Greene to Atlanta for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte – Draw

Pirates trade Dario Agrazal to Detroit for cash – Draw

2020 trades:

Maybin to the Cubs for Zack Short – Draw

Going back to 2015, both Maybin and Wilson each provided productive 2016 seasons, and Wilson would be used to get another hit for Avila. Maybin again gave Detroit Victor Alcantara, who was good for one decent season in the bullpen in 2017. K-Rod did give Detroit some stability in their bullpen in 2016, while Piña has been a steady backup for the Brewers.

As far as 2017 goes, the trade to the Cubs for Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes has been a big hit for Avila. Verlander because he has won a Cy Young and helped the Astros win a World Series, for now, it is a Miss. Unless the three players Detroit acquired help win a World Series for the Tigers, you can’t see that as a wash either since the trade paid off well for Houston quickly.

With the Martin for Castro deal, they got a big year from Castro, who could be their starting shortstop of the future. The rest we are waiting to see what happens.

Hits: 7 Misses: 4 Draws: 8

The misses are huge, and half of these hits are flares over the second baseman rather than liners to the gap. Avila may have a .368 batting average here, but he’s had some luck with it.

Next up, free agents.

(Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

Al Avila’s Batting Average in Free Agency

What hurts Avila here is his early work with Jordan Zimmermann, but if you recall, Zimmerman was one of the better arms on the market in 2015. The numbers showed a slight decrease in some major categories, but no one expected Zimmermann to be plagued by injuries the way he was in Detroit.

Let’s examine how Avila’s batting average works here. This will not include all the minor league player signings who did not make the roster.

2015 signings:

Jordan Zimmermann – Miss
Mike Aviles – Miss
Mark Lowe – Miss
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Miss
Mike Pelfrey – Miss

2016 signings:

Alex Avila – Hit
Jim Adduci – Hit
Justin Upton – Hit

2017 signings:

Niko Goodrum – Hit
Ryan Carpenter – Miss
Leonys Martin – Hit
Mike Fiers – Hit

2018 Signings:

Louis Coleman – Hit
Francisco Liriano – Hit
Jordy Mercer – Miss
Nick Ramirez – Hit
Tyson Ross – Draw
Matt Moore – Draw

2019/2020 Signings:

Gordon Beckham – Miss
Josh Harrison – Miss
Trevor Rosenthal – Miss
Edwin Jackson – Miss
Austin Romine – Miss
C.J Cron – Draw
Jonathan Schoop – Hit
Ivan Nova – Draw
Cameron Maybin – Draw

Hits: 10 Misses:13 Draws: 4

This ends up being a .371 batting average, though there are a lot more misses here than in other categories. In his first offseason, in the winter of 2015, Justin Upton proved to be the only solid hit, as Avila’s attempts to shore up the rotation and bullpen fell flat.

The Tigers got plenty of use from Jim Adduci during his two seasons in Detroit as a fan favorite, batting .259 as a part-time player. Both Coleman and Liriano did what was expected without costing Detroit a lot of money. It is fair to say Liriano’s best days were behind him for that 98-loss Tigers team, but unlike Ross, Moore, and Nova, he was able to go out there without any injury issues. Coleman was a journeyman reliever who gave Detroit one good season before getting cut in spring training in 2019.

What will sting the most is Rosenthal. Detroit could not help him figure out his control in his brief time here, but Kansas City did and was able to flip him to the Padres. Fiers, Maybin, and Martin were flipped for players, so Avila was able to get something for them. And taking a flyer on Nick Ramirez gave the Tigers a lefty in 2019 who was dependable. But Romine’s bad second half behind the plate really put the Tigers on the hunt again for another catcher this off-season.

Overall, Al Avila is 21/60 in his moves as Tigers GM, good for a flat.350 batting average. That’s a Hall-of-Fame batting average for a hitter, but when you’re a general manager the only number that matters is wins. Al Avila’s track record on trades is better than I expected, but for the Detroit Tigers to compete again, he’s going to take some bigger swings soon.

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Detroit Tigers: Finding Avila’s Batting Average as GM