Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning took flight
Here at Motor City Bengals, we are going to take a look back at the Detroit Tigers 2021 season with some in-depth articles. In this article, we look at Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning as they stepped into the rotation.
Another season of Detroit Tigers baseball is in the history books but unlike the ones of recent past, this one ended on a relatively high note. The Tigers’ 77 wins exceeded projections and what the fans may have expected. Led by manager A.J Hinch and the rest of his staff, the Tigers were never out of too many games and were able to finish .500 or better in every month except for April, August, and October.
The biggest leap forward would have to be the pitching staff. The fingerprints of pitching coach Chris Fetter were all over the pitching staff. Each pitcher had a plan of attack and most saw improvement as the year went on.
The 2021 Detroit Tigers got 79 starts from their starters who were in MLB rookie status, the second-most in team history behind only the 2003 Tigers squad, who had 80. The 2021 rookies also average a K per 9 of 7.89 and an ERA of 4.38 this season.
This marks the first time in team history that three rookies made 15 or more starts in one season. Mize led the way with 30 starts, followed by Skubal with 29 and Manning with 18. That is rather significant because while we think of the World Series rotations of 1984 and 1968, they had a core to them that came from the farm system but all of them never played together in their rookie season.
Let’s start by taking a look at Casey Mize’s 2021 season and how he was the ace of the staff.
Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize
So last week, Austin Drake, who does the stats for Bally Sports Detroit, posted a comparison of Casey Mize to Justin Verlander’s 2006 rookie season.
It got me thinking about comparing the two different campaigns and what factors they may have in common. As a collective in 2006, the MLB batting average was .269 and OPS was .768 so Verlander was below the league average. Strikeouts-wise, Verlander was not yet the strikeout machine he would later be so he was below the K per 9 league average of 6.6.
For Mize, the league batting average was .244 and the OPS was .728 so he faired well, and as far as strikeouts per 9 go, he finished below the league average of 8.9. From a historical perspective, it is vastly different now than it was in 2006 but regardless, Verlander did pitch more innings than Mize did.
Heading into the season, there were discussions of having Mize start the season down in the minors but he had a strong finish to spring training. What was successful for him this season compared to the few starts he made in 2020?
He cut his walk rate down from 9.8% in 2020 to 6.7%. While the 2020 season is a limited sample size to all these numbers, according to Baseball Savant, cutting back his splitter usage and instead went more with a slider. As a result, batters only hit .195 off the pitch and was able to generate a Whiff% of just 28.2%. Another stat that pops out is that the slider gave Mize a -10 run value which as a result, made his splitter when he did use it, a much more effective pitch.
Getting the first strike also worked in Mize’s favor as he was able to generate a 62.3% 1st pitch strike rate. While you like to see the strikeout numbers be up a little higher (118 in 150 IP), his 3.3 bWAR was valuable to a rotation that saw many injuries early on to Julio Teheran, Spencer Turnbull, and Matthew Boyd.
Detroit Tigers LHP-Tarik Skubal.
Now, this stat that was just shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic this afternoon pops out a bit about the type of season Tarik Skubal has had.
Skubal, who is the fastest Tigers pitcher to 200 career strikeouts, finished the second half of the season giving up less walks than he did in the first half of the season. He finished the season with 164 strikeouts in 149.1 innings pitched but gave up 35 home runs, second only to Jordan Lyles. Of the 35 he gave up, 22 of them came off his fastball.
Like Mize, Skubal found success with his slider. In the 22.8% of the time he used the pitch, teams were batting just .204 against it and next to his changeup, it was his second-best put away pitch in terms of percentage.
Skubal struggled in April before putting together a good May and June and again in July, he struggled with allowing home runs. Just looking at the numbers, Skubal appeared to be trying to find what work best for him. For example, per Statcast, he threw mainly his fastball and slider, to the tune of 53.3% and 26.7% in the month of April.
When May and June hit, the difference there was that he started throwing his changeup more. (17.1% in May and 16% in June) which gave him a different look. Hitters were not just sitting on his fastball, they had to respect the changeup. In fact, in the month of August, he threw the pitch 46 times against right-handers and he did not allow a single hit. It was pretty impressive as a whole, looking at it month to month.
- May: # of times thrown: 80 strikeouts generated: 7. Percentage of pitch thrown: 17.1% BA: .188
- June: # of times thrown: 78, strikeouts generated: 5. Percentage of pitch thrown: 16% BA: .214
- July: # of times thrown: 71 strikeouts generated: 4. Percentage of pitch thrown: 15.9% BA: .182
- August: # of times thrown: 47 strikeouts generated: 4. Percentage of pitch thrown: 10% BA: .000
- September: # of times thrown: 32 strikeouts generated: 1. Percentage of pitch thrown: 13% BA: .333
The sinker usage also went up as the season went along but as Skubal mixed in other pitches with his fastball, it made the pitch much more effective based on the data.
I thought he had a good chance to win AL Rookie of the Year based on his stuff but he made progress this season as his command improved and you cant ask for anything more.
Detroit Tigers RHP-Matt Manning
Brandon Day of Bless You Boys.com has been the most patient one when it comes to the progress of Matt Manning and I am starting to understand why. He showed signs of maturity towards the end of the season, which we will address shortly. Manning started the season in Toledo, working on sequencing his pitches better until he was called up due to injuries on the staff.
Just looking at his numbers on the surface, 4-7 with an ERA of 5.80 and a WHIP of 1.51, they do not look good. Add a K rate of 14.8 and a walk rate of almost 9 and the picture looks more cloudy but let’s look beyond the stat line.
Two starts stand out to me. His August 27th start on the road against Toronto and his September 15th start also on the road against the Brewers. Both were quality starts against two contending teams and both starts showed when he is sequencing his pitches better, he can generate more swings and misses. Against Toronto, he generated 10, and against the Brewers, he generated 12. Even in his final start against the White Sox, he was able to generate 8.
He had to learn “on the job” against the tougher part of the Tigers schedule. Manning will have to strike out more batters but all things considered, he was healthy (shut down last season due to forearm tightness) and another off-season with pitching coach Chris Fetter should help his growth.
A.J Hinch challenged his rookies
There were numerous times that manager A.J Hinch left his three rookie starters in the game during a tough inning but his patience paid off. Throughout the season, one moment stood out and summed up how Hinch felt about trusting his rookies.
The Tigers may look for another pitcher in the off-season to help out the rotation but at least the foundation is set for 2022.