ESPN's bold prediction for Riley Greene would force the issue of a contract extension

Tarik Skubal is inarguably the face of the Detroit Tigers, but Riley Greene runs a distant second. While still flawed, he's the best hitter the Tigers have had since Miguel Cabrera in his prime, and the numbers back it up.

In 2025, Greene became the first Tiger to hit more than 35 homers and drive in more than 110 runs since Cabrera's 2013 MVP season, hitting 36 home runs with 111 RBI.

The worry with Greene, of course, is how much he strikes out — he led the AL with 201 last year in a Tigers lineup plagued with swing-and-miss — but when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. His 17.1% barrel rate put him in the top 5% in baseball. His 454-foot homer against the Mariners in ALDS Game 4 tied Shohei Ohtani for the third longest-hit homer of the postseason.

If Greene can work out some of the kinks, he could be a superstar, and ESPN already has high hopes for him in 2026. They named Greene, James Wood, and Nick Kurtz as three candidates to watch to hit 50 homers next season.

ESPN predicts Tigers' Riley Greene will break through 50 homer threshold in 2026

Extension talks around Skubal are the most pressing issue for Tigers fans right now, and for good reason, but if the front office can't make it happen and can't re-sign Skubal in free agency, they should set their sights on Greene — especially if he actually manages to hit 50 homers in a single season. Greene, like Skubal, is homegrown, and if Skubal gets away, fans would never forgive Scott Harris if he let the other face of the franchise get better and better, only to leave too.

2026 is Greene's first year of arbitration eligibility, so it's not an issue the Tigers necessarily need to worry about right now, but if he shows marked signs of improvement this year, the front office should be hard at work finding a way to buy out his last two years of arbitration and beyond.

It's an argument that fans have used when talking about a Skubal extension, but it applies to Greene too: if the Tigers are really serious about building a winning team with homegrown guys, then at some point they're actually going to have to pay to keep some of them. While 50 homers may seem a tad unrealistic, if he even gets to 40 and can cut his strikeout rate down a few percentage points at age 25, he shouldn't be allowed to get away.