MLB Network might've just diagnosed Tarik Skubal's troubles vs Mariners

Of the eight teams Tarik Skubal faced more than once in the 2025 regular season, his worst numbers (by a considerable margin) are against the Mariners — a 5.91 ERA in two starts. He first pitched against them on April 2 and gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings, including a solo homer to rookie Dylan Moore. He surrendered three walks, a rarity for him.

When he saw them again on July 11, Seattle had him out of the game after the fifth inning. He gave up an RBI triple in the second, and a three-run fifth (with a two-run homer for Julio Rodríguez) got him yanked early.

In Game 2 of the ALDS, he went seven innings and struck out nine hitters — by all accounts another great performance — but he also gave up two solo homers to former Twin Jorge Polanco (as well as four other hits). The Tigers haven't won a game against Seattle with Skubal on the mound since Aug. 13, 2024.

So what is it about Skubal, who will start the Tigers' and Mariners' decisive ALDS Game 5, when it comes to Seattle? MLB Network's Ryan Rowland-Smith and Yonder Alonso had a theory: the Mariners lay off of Skubal's prized changeup.

Tigers' ALDS Game 5 starter Tarik Skubal's greatest weapon might be biggest problem with Mariners

Sure enough, Polanco's homers in Game 2 were on hanging slider and then a hanging sinker. He laid off of three changeups across both of his at-bats. The homer Skubal gave up to Moore in April was on the slider. The only Mariner who has hit a homer off the changeup is Rodríguez in July, after taking one in the dirt and getting Skubal to throw another in the zone.

Fans actually did see his changeup usage dip in Game 2, and he did have a better start against the Mariners overall than his two in the regular season, but it puts him between a rock and a hard place. If the Mariners can see the changeup well but can also mash the breaking balls, where does that put Skubal?

The onus, in this particular case, falls more on the Tigers' offense. Two solo home runs and then the game-winning RBI single for Rodríguez weren't insurmountable, but the Tigers could only hit back with two runs themselves. Still, whether Skubal continues to stay away from the changeup or trust his best pitch in a do-or-die will be something to monitor on Friday night.