Most absurd Tarik Skubal contract prediction surfaces (and validates trade rumors)

We've heard a lot about what it might take to re-sign Tarik Skubal. When the misleading report of a $250 million gap between the Detroit Tigers and Skubal came out, the assumed number that would get a deal done was $400 million.

At the time, that seemed steep. The largest contract bestowed on a starting pitcher is the $325 million that the Los Angeles Dodgers gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto, beating out the previous record holder, Gerrit Cole, by just $1 million.

It sort of felt like quarterback extensions in the NFL, where each time a top guy comes due for one, it is "record-breaking" but truly only bests the previous record by a minuscule amount. The "record" is more about bragging rights than anything else.

But in the case of Skubal, the record is real. $400 million doesn't just beat Yamamoto's mark; it shatters it, but what if even that isn't enough?

Tigers insider Evan Petzold and MLB insider Bob Nightengale teamed up to bring us a $450 million contract prediction for Skubal, and it will have you questioning everything.

Tarik Skubal's $450 million contract prediction could validate the Tigers' trade rumors

In the back of everyone's mind has been the idea that if the Tigers truly want to re-sign Tarik Skubal, they can. They'll need to pony up, and they can afford to. After all, during the Dave Dombrowski years, Detroit was one of the biggest spenders in the league, and even if that feels like a lifetime ago, it really isn't that far in the past.

However, that idea was always based on the hope that logic would win out. Of course, Skubal is going to test the open market, but he loves Detroit, and all else being equal, why wouldn't he want to stay if he's getting paid? Of course, that's assuming that the number is still reasonable.

$450 million certainly isn't reasonable. Not in the slightest. That's $125 million more than the last record-setting contract, and that deal is only a couple of years in the past.

But this is what happens when a generational talent hits the open market. Common sense loses out in the hysteria of grabbing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Just look at Juan Soto.

There was always a chance that Soto was going to break Shohei Ohtani's $700 million record, but most experts thought he was going to land in the $600 million range. Instead, he eclipsed Ohtani comfortably to the tune of $765 million (with the possibility of topping $800 million due to bonuses and escalators).

The same could happen with Skubal next winter. As hard as it is to admit, there's a very real chance that this does get out of hand. And if it does, at what point do the Tigers pull the plug? Maybe they could be swayed to part with $400 million to retain him, but $450 million?

If you believe $450 million is a realistic possibility, and we're not fully convinced that it is (though it's not impossible), then it would be irresponsible for the Tigers not to entertain trading Skubal.

It's a hard truth, but if $450 million is really on the table, there's no way they'll match that, and they can't walk away from this with only a qualifying offer comp pick to show for their troubles.