All-Star Game showcase proves Tigers should extend Tarik Skubal

It'll take Tigers fans a while to get over the fact that Tarik Skubal was passed over to start the All-Star Game for the American League. AL manager Bruce Bochy opted instead for the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, a Cy Young winner and All-Star for his fourth consecutive season, justifying that decision by saying something along the lines of "it was his time, he's earned it."

That definitely isn't good enough for Tigers fans, who have watched Skubal outperform the rest of his team through pretty much all of his 116 innings pitched this season and pitch his way into being the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young.

But it's not entirely surprising that a manager like Bochy would defer to seniority (or that the league would push for one of their darlings in Baltimore to headline), so Burnes went first, and Skubal followed in the second.

It was some consolation, and a vindication, that Skubal did better than Burnes. Burnes allowed two baserunners on a hit and a walk, while Skubal put up zeros everywhere with a ground out from Christian Yelich and fly outs from Alec Bohm and Teoscar Hernández.

It was a bit hard, though, to fully enjoy Skubal's outing when, a day earlier, Tom Verducci dropped a bomb on Tigers fans by confirming that the Dodgers and Orioles were both prepared to put huge trade packages on the table for Skubal.

Still, Skubal took the mound wearing the Old English D on his cap, and Tigers fans were reminded once again that the front office needs to hold onto this guy for dear life. Trade talks should be nonexistent, but the exact opposite — extension talks — that's a conversation we should be having.

Tigers should be having conversations about extending Tarik Skubal, not trading him, after masterful All-Star Game inning

The largest contract extension in Tigers' franchise history and eighth largest in MLB history went to, of course, Miguel Cabrera in 2014, when he signed on to an additional eight years and $248 million in Detroit. The latest was to Colt Keith, for six years and $28.6 million. Figures for a possible Skubal extension would almost certainly match Keith's in length, if not exceed it, but what about cost?

Clayton Kershaw received seven more years and $215 million from the Dodgers in 2014, the largest extension for a pitcher in MLB history, but the market looked a lot different back then. This was before Gerrit Cole's nine years and $324 million with the Yankees, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 10 years and $325 million with the Dodgers.

This is Skubal's fifth year with the Tigers and his age 27 season. He is eligible to be a free agent after 2026. Adding four extra years to retain Skubal until he's 33 seems a bit conservative, but that would probably be the Tigers' way if they were going to offer an extension. For the sake of this argument, let's stretch it to seven years and keep him until he's 34. Aaron Nola signed an extension with the Phillies for seven years this offseason, and they paid him $172 million for his work across nine prior seasons and three Cy Young candidacies.

Skubal doesn't have that exact service time or pedigree, but he is younger than Nola by four years and is clearly entering his prime right now. So we'll say the Tigers put seven years and $180 million on the table in front of Skubal, for a yearly value of $25.7 million.

Still there, are caveats here. Skubal has had both Tommy John and a flexor tendon surgery already, the latter of which ended his 2023 season prematurely. Accounting for that kind of health risk could work his total value down a bit, more toward Nola territory. Then, there's also the fact that Skubal is represented by famously hard-headed superagent Scott Boras, who seems allergic to extensions. It's not unheard of that Boras clients accept them (José Altuve did it this year with the Astros), but they usually like to explore the market in free agency.

Still, Skubal has two more years of team control left with the Tigers. Even if he and Boras wouldn't accept an extension now, offering one would show real interest from the club to stick by him and invest in him, and they would still have 2025 and 2026 to keep reevaluating figures.

We all know the Tigers are allergic to spending, but if this is a pitcher who is a shoo-in for the Cy Young this year, he's a pitcher they need to splurge on. Trade conversations should almost certainly be off the table, even if the Dodgers and Orioles were to offer four or five top prospects. Patience with this front office and ownership is already wearing thin, if it's not gone entirely, and extending Skubal would be the perfect way to get themselves back into good graces.