Argument for Tigers to keep Jack Flaherty at trade deadline is absolutely ridiculous

It's almost a given that Jack Flaherty will be leaving Detroit at the trade deadline, provided he can stay healthy. Outside of his back issues, he's pretty much a perfect trade candidate for the Tigers, a starting pitcher who's still relatively young, has an ERA in the low 3.00s after bouncing back nicely this season, and will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Given the state the Tigers are in (.479 through July 11), trading Flaherty for a couple of highly ranked prospects who are relatively close to being major league-ready seems like the name of the game. Despite fan hopes they'd be further along on the rebuild by now, they definitely are not. Getting prospects would be the best way to prime this team for the 2025 season.

However, The Athletic seems to think that the Tigers could take another route. If Flaherty isn't dealt, he would be eligible to receive the qualifying offer at the end of the season and the Tigers would receive a compensatory draft pick if he doesn't accept it (subscription required). Ken Rosenthal and other members of The Athletic's staff have been pushing this possibility a lot, but it feels almost completely improbable that the Tigers opt into that strategy.

The Athletic believes Tigers could keep Jack Flaherty through the trade deadline and extend him the qualifying offer

The qualifying offer is worth the mean salary of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball; last year, it was $20.325 million. The Athletic's strategy hinges on the possibility that Flaherty will perform so well during this back half of the season that his price in free agency would exceed the $19-20 million range and he would turn down the QO (subscription required).

However, this would be an incredibly bold gamble for the Tigers to take, and they historically don't like to take those. Flaherty is a Tiger for one year and $14 million, and even though he's been very good for them so far this season, with his history of struggle and injury, it's hard to believe that he'll get $20 million in free agency. In that case, if not traded at the deadline, the Tigers would either let him go into free agency without extending a qualifying offer, or he would accept the Tigers' QO and they'd miss out on prospects at the trade deadline and a draft pick.

So the best possible option for the Tigers is to trade him at the deadline. Even if his back doesn't allow the Tigers to get quite the return they're hoping for, it's better than letting things go to chance until the end of the season.