Grading every Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick of the latest rebuild era

Detroit Tigers president and general manager Dave Dombrowski was fired just after the completion of the trade deadline in 2015, ushering in the Al Avila era at the head of the front office and unofficially announcing the start of a rebuild that is still ongoing to this day.

The eight drafts of the era have had their success stories -- notably 2024 MLB All-Stars Riley Greene (No. 5 overall pick in 2019) and Tarik Skubal (9th round, 2018). But by and large, as you look at the careers of the players who were selected in the first round, disappointment and frustration at the organization's drafting and development program are the only feelings you could have.

Today, let's do a little 20/20 hindsight regrading of those draft efforts, working our way back from 2023 to 2016. This is how we'd have to grade the Tigers draft picks as of today.

2023 Detroit Tigers first-round draft picks

These first couple of years are a bit harder to re-grade given the players are largely still in their early development and haven't yet reached the experience necessary to succeed in the big leagues. Still, looking at their early development we can start to see how things might play out and there are no red flags to be found for the more recent picks, fortunately.

Notably about the 2023 draft is that it's the only one under current Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris. In the first round, he picked a pair of high school position players.

OF Max Clark, Pick 3 -- Grade A

Max Clark is just 19 years old still and has not played above Single-A Lakeland. That said, he's already earned an appearance in the Futures Game, where he went 1-for-4. Clark is ranked 10th on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects list already. Strong in the field and at the plate, aided by speed in both, he's got almost every tool he needs to be an above-average major leaguer. He had a slow start with the Flying Tigers, but through 71 games is batting .279 with .381 OBP and .404 slugging. He has 25 stolen bases. He has just six home runs but the power is expected to come as he fills in more.

SS/2B Kevin McGonigle, Pick 37 -- Grade A

Kevin McGonigle, also age 19, was a competitive balance round pick for the Tigers and has also cracked the Top 100 list at MLB Pipeline. He hasn't come with quite as much hype, but grades out as above average across the board. In 57 games this season with Single-A Lakeland, he's batting .333 with .413 on-base percentage and .470 slugging. He's played a majority of his games at shortstop, but has 18 starts at second base too.

2022 Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick

Jace Jung, Pick 12 -- Grade A

Jace Jung is a player Tigers fans should be champing at the bit to see his his major league opportunity, though the Tigers have no real reason to rush him up this season. The 23-year-old second/third baseman has been a strong performer in Triple-A thus far, batting .268 with .391 OBP and .508 slugging for .899 OPS.

He has 13 home runs (32 extra-base hits total). He's ranked as the 41st best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, which notes, "Jung was a surprise Rawlings Minor League Gold Glove winner given his pre-Draft reputation, but he impressed Tigers officials and Minor League managers with his ability to handle what’s hit to him with his good hands." With Colt Keith firmly planting himself at second base, Jung could be the third baseman of the future for the club beginning as soon as 2025.

2021 Detroit Tigers first-round draft picks

Jackson Jobe, Pick 3 -- Grade A

Jackson Jobe, age 21, is easily the Tigers' most exciting pitching prospect and one who has fans and analysts excited to see how he develops from here. Although he lost some time to a lightly documented injury earlier in the season, he's returned to Double-A Erie and returned to dominating. Pitching at an age 3.5 years younger than the average Double-A player, Jobe carries a 1.69 ERA and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He's got a WHIP of 0.975. The Tigers likely see no reason to rush him either, but it's hard not to picture how he could give the bottom of the Tigers rotation a jolt it needs.

Ty Madden, Pick 32 -- Grade B-

The 24-year-old Ty Madden is the last player on our list who has yet to make his MLB debut. He's also the first player on the list not to be in MLB Pipeline's Top 100, though he is ranked as the Tigers' fifth best prospect. That said, he'll have to answer the test better than he has so far in order to keep that recognition.

While he carried a 2.55 ERA in Double-A through four games, the promotion to Triple-A has been a struggle. With Toledo he is 1-4 with an 8.43 ERA in 12 starts. He's given up 55 hits and 32 walks in 47 innings for a 1.851 WHIP. He strikes out more than one batter per inning, but that's about the positive you can say about his early time as Mud Hen.

2020 Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick

Spencer Torkelson, Pick 1 -- Grade D

Once one of baseball's top prospects, Spencer Torkelson is among the Tigers' biggest disappointments so far in his career. Currently residing in Triple-A, the 24-year-old batted .201 with .266 OBP and .330 slugging in Detroit in 2024. He's hardly better in Toledo, hitting .244 / .348 / .405. He has just nine home runs in 87 games between the two teams, which is especially notable because power is his calling card.

A combined 103 strikeouts in 385 plate appearances tells the rest of the story. He hit for power for Detroit in 2023, racking up 34 home runs following 16 across two-thirds of a season in 2022, but unless he begins to turn things around in a big way this is going to be seen as a major draft bust for the Tigers -- his WAR is -1.8 making him worse than replacement level in his MLB career. Hopefully that's not how his story ends, he's too important to the Tigers' future.

2019 Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick

Riley Greene, Pick 5 -- Grade A+

The 23-year-old was picked for the All-Star Game in 2024 by his fellow players and has made a name for himself as the Tigers' best position player. While Tarik Skubal is making himself a household name as a starting pitcher, Greene is quickly doing the same for himself in the outfield. Just being picked for the All-Star Game at age 23 has already put his name alongside many Tigers greats who also earned the honor that young. So far in his career he's been worth 7.1 WAR. This year he's batting .271/.362/504 (141 OPS+) with 17 home runs and 50 runs driven in. Greene is one of those rare players keeping the early rebuild period from being a complete bust at the draft.

2018 Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick

Casey Mize, Pick 1 -- Grade D

On the other hand of the equation, we have Casey Mize. He has thrown just one full season at the major league level and missed the entirety of the 2023 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. For his career, Mize has made 55 starts across 267 innings. He carries a 4.28 RA, with 206 strikeouts in 77 walks allowed. Even this year, Mize has been at best serviceable. He made 16 starts before suffering a hamstring injury but posted a 4.23 ERA during them. The Tigers are just 9-7 during those games. All in all, he has a 3.5 WAR, but that's hardly what you're looking for out of the No. 1 pick in a draft.

2017 Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick

Alex Faedo, Pick 18 -- Grade D+

Alex Faedo is another Tigers pitcher who has done little during his career after being the team's first pick in a draft. In Faedo's case, he was the 18th pick, which buys a little bit of space compared to the players who failed to turn out in the first five picks. That said, he's done next to nothing for the club. He has pitched in 54 games, with just 25 of those being starts. Across those games he has a 4.56 RA, 7.7 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings. In both 2022 and 2023, he made just 12 starts. His best season so far is this one, with a 3.53 ERA pitching 27 games out of the bullpen and making one start. Faedo was another among the many Tigers pitchers who underwent Tommy John Surgery.

2016 Detroit Tigers first-round draft pick

Matt Manning, Pick 9 -- Grade D+

Finally we reach the first player of the Tigers rebuild, Matt Manning. Picked ninth as a high schooler, Manning didn't make his MLB debut until 2021. Manning is another snakebitten pitcher, missing most of 2022 with a pitching-shoulder injury and then getting knocked out of the 2023 season after suffering a fractured foot on a comebacker. Manning seemed to have peaked in 2019, going 11-5 with a 2.56 RA and 0.980 WHIP for Double-A Erie.

After Covid-19 wiped out the 2020 season, he was not the same. He had a 5.80 ERA with the Tigers in his rookie year, and made just 12 starts in 2022 due to the injury. He did have a 3.86 ERA that year. Before the injury, he'd gone 5-4 in 2023 with a 3.58 ERA giving some hope. That hope hasn't played out in 2024: Manning has a 4.88 ERA in his five spot starts for the Tigers. With Triple-A Toledo, his ERA is 5.03.

For his MLB career, Manning's WAR is just 2.

The chief thing we've learned: while Alex Avila sometimes made some picks that turned out well, by and large his time at the top of the Tigers' decision tree led to several lost years through poor drafting and development, frustrating a Tigers fanbase who deserved better.