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Three reasons the Detroit Tigers will struggle to bring in top talent via free agency

By Jacob Boes |
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New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox / Rich Gagnon/GettyImages
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MLB Free Agency has begun and the Detroit Tigers are expected to be active--but playing at the top of the market may prove challenging

The Detroit Tigers and President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris have made it known they intend to be active this offseason. The new regime is eager to mark their own fingerprint on an organization ran by Al Avila the previous seven seasons and free agency is one of the quickest way to instantly improve a 66-96 organization at the major league level.

Many expect Harris to take every avenue at improving the team: free agency, trades, and waivers alike. Free agency in particular is interesting in that motives matter to players. Take Andrew Chafin, for example. While the club had made various improvements, the Tigers were not picked by many to make the playoffs, let alone win the AL Central.

Chafin was coming off of an excellent season in which he supplied 1.4 fWAR across 68 innings and likely had many suitors, but ultimately chose Detroit in large part due to the proximity to his Ohio home. It's variables like these that make free agency incalculable to begin with, but there are other reasons the Detroit Tigers may struggle, particularly if they are interested in playing at the top of the market.

There are needs galore. Starting pitching, third base, and outfield help would be the minimum positions that should be addressed in some fashion this offseason. But don't expect Verlander, Judge, or Correa to be catching the next flight to DTW, at least for now.

1. The Detroit Tigers aren't ready to compete

Harris has committed himself to making smart baseball decisions without putting a timeframe on a turnaround. Bringing in star talent is surely a way to accelerate their competitive window, but with so many needs to address, it's difficult to imagine they would be willing to tie up so many resources in a single player.

As much as we as fans want to ignore money and what it takes to sign players, it's a real variable to ownership and Harris; and while part of Harris' job is to convince ownership that certain moves are worth the financial investment, budgets do exist. The Tigers were 25th in payroll in 2021 and have shed Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman, Andrew Chafin, and Michael Pineda. This isn't an argument that the club doesn't have funds to spend big or whether they should, I'm just not convinced they will considering the club is two or three years out from making real noise, anyway.

Chafin, in choosing to stay close to home as we referenced earlier, is the exception rather than the rule--and would be even more of an exception for star talent. Understandably, many are in line for life-changing contracts. Seeking out higher bidders doesn't make them greedy, it just means they can do the math.

It goes beyond financials, though. Take Aaron Judge or Trea Turner or Xander Boegarts or Justin Verlander. All are in line for huge deals, but all are leaving teams that want them back and are better positioned to win. It's infinitely easier to sell a veteran free agent on, "we're built to win now, look at our roster" than to say, "we're going to win in the future, trust us."

2. The Detroit Tigers face big market competition

Much of the top-end talents available on the open market are leaving teams that have shown a willingness to spend big; New York, Boston, Houston, Los Angeles among them. It's a big reason that free agency could be uneventful in some regards, because there is a real chance many players stay with the same team they suited up for in 2021, just with a hefty pay raise.

Beyond that, though, many of the suitors for other teams are also big-spenders. The Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Astros, and Giants have all put their hats in a respective free-agent ring thus far with more likely to follow; and as we have already referenced, all are in win-now mode.

It isn't to say the Tigers should necessarily be intimidated when bidding against these teams, but the more high-end clubs that are in on high-end talent, the percentage of winning that bidding war goes down considerably.

It can be done, however, and we don't need to go way back in time to do so. The Rangers, just last offseason, beat out these same big time teams for the services of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien--and have also entered the Jacob deGrom sweepstakes this offseason. It's possible, but it will take persistance and, in the end, likely what many would deem an 'overpay.'

3. The Detroit Tigers have been burned before

It's a new regime and a new era in Detroit Tigers baseball, but the pains of the past are evident in their lack of success in previous years. Signing Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez in the offseason was a big step toward a commitment to winning that fans had not seen since the signings of Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton heading into 2016, but their recent signings aren't exactly a model example for why continued investment is prudent.

The Jordan Zimmermann deal never really worked out, Dave Dombrowski pulled a fast one to get the club out from under the Prince Fielder contract, Miguel Cabrera is limping, literally, to the finish line, Javier Baez led all shortstops in errors, and Eduardo Rodriguez went MIA for a chunk of the year.

While the jury is still out on Rodriguez and Baez, neither have been particularly inspiring for their own reasons thus far. There are big money contracts that work out all the time--Mookie Betts, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Bryce Harper just to name a few. But it remains to be seen if the Tigers are willing to write a blank check as they did with Pudge Rodriguez in 2004.

The Detroit Tigers' ownership should not allow their past successes or failures to influence their decision-making today, but I'm curious to know if their hit rate with big name free agent veterans in recent years may have the club gunshy at another big player.

Next. Detroit Tigers: 4 recently non-tendered free agents to consider. light

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