Tarik Skubal’s free agent market taking hit after injury could change Tigers trajectory

The phrase of the year across the baseball world has been "loose bodies" as an ever-growing number of pitchers have succumbed to this elbow malady, filling up injured lists around the league. The latest entrant, and the highest profile one, is Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Skubal's future has been the topic of much speculation dating back to the moment the Seattle Mariners eliminated the Tigers during last year's ALDS. The prevailing wisdom being that the reigning two-time AL Cy Young will receive a record-breaking contract, perhaps in excess of 10 years and $400 million, but that the Tigers might not be the one to pony up for his services. Of course, all of that was contingent on him getting through the season unscathed.

The 29-year-old is now undergoing the third elbow surgery of his career, after 2017's Tommy John surgery and 2022's surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon. By all accounts, this cleanup procedure is the one you want to get if you make a living hurling baseballs, but it will still keep him sidelined for a couple of months at least.

Timelines truly depend on the size and quantity of the loose bodies, essentially broken off pieces of cartilage that have hardened and are floating around the elbow. They can impact mobility in the elbow, something that is less than ideal for a pitcher.

The Yankees' Carlos Rodón pitched through the ailment last season, opting to have surgery to address it early on in the offseason. He recalled that the condition made it hard to even button a shirt, and to date, he still hasn't returned from the IL, though he's set to be activated next week.

2026 is about as hazy as it gets for Skubal, but the bigger question is what impact this has on his future, and how Detroit might be able to navigate the road ahead.

Tigers insider drops updated contract comp that could keep Tarik Skubal in Detroit long-term

It's not so much the injury that has led to the uncertainty for Skubal, but rather how the market will react to a pitcher entering his 30s with three different elbow surgeries on his resumé. The chances of long-term effects from this latest procedure are rare, but the cumulative effect is worth noting.

Add in the labor uncertainty that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring on December 1 brings, and there is a plethora of potential roadblocks standing between the southpaw and a record-setting free-agent deal.

That led Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic (subscription required) to lay out a few different ways Skubal's free agency could resolve itself.

One potential outcome Stavenhagen proposes is Skubal accepting a one-year pillow contract to re-enter the market once the new CBA has been finalized, and hopefully put the injury scare out of everyone's mind. In order for that to come to fruition, one would imagine that he would command even more than his record-setting arbitration payout for 2026. Would Detroit go for that? It's hard to tell, given their posturing during the arbitration standoff.

Another variation along the same lines is Skubal taking a short-term, high-AAV, opt-out-laden deal, similar to what Bo Bichette signed with the New York Mets or even what Framber Valdez agreed to with the Tigers.

But the most interesting comp Stavenhagen brought up was Jacob deGrom. Like Skubal, deGrom had two Cy Young awards and a spotty injury history when he signed a five-year, $185 million deal with the Texas Rangers ahead of the 2023 season.

There are some important differences to note, however. At the time of signing the deal, deGrom had two consecutive seasons limited by serious injuries immediately before hitting free agency, and was entering his age-35 season upon signing the contract.

Skubal settling for a five-year deal instead of an eight-to-ten year one would be ideal for the Tigers, who would be signing him through his age-35 season, mitigating some of the risk. It would cost more than what deGrom got, but it still wouldn't set records and could be a happy medium for both sides. This way, Detroit would retain the ace for the rest of his prime, and if he stays healthy, he'd hit free agency again at 35 like deGrom with another chance to cash in big.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow