Tigers arbitration deadline settlement with Casey Mize hints at 2025 plan

There was basically no way the Tigers were going to exercise their $3.1 million option on Casey Mize for 2025, and he seemed to know that too. Last year, Mize and the Tigers disagreed over $25,000 by the arbitration deadline (Mize was asking for $840,000, the Tigers wanted to give him $815,000), so they settled on a compromise to avoid an arbitration hearing: $830,000 in 2024 and a $3.1 million club option for 2025 with a $10,000 buyout.

Right after they came to an agreement, Mize said he expected that they would be back in arbitration discussions the following year.

To no one's surprise, the Tigers did not exercise their 2025 option, which sent everyone back to the drawing board as predicted. It always seemed unlikely that Mize would be able to cover so much ground in 2024 that he would warrant a $2.27 million raise, and he didn't.

About halfway through 2024, it became pretty clear that the bloom was coming off the rose. Mize is a former first-round draft pick, but the Tigers might've intentionally kept him in the minors for longer than they needed to by moving him to the 60-day IL in July, barring him from a return until late August, despite the fact that he felt ready to pitch. He was on the Wild Card roster but didn't pitch, and was left off of the ALDS roster altogether.

However, Mize and the Tigers will be avoiding any potential arbitration nastiness this year. On Thursday morning, they agreed to a $2.34 million salary for 2025.

Tigers News: Casey Mize agrees to new contract for 2025 season

This marks Mize's second arbitration-eligible year, meaning he has another year of team control in 2026 before he hits free agency. The question is whether or not he'll even last that long in Detroit. The Tigers have clearly become disillusioned with him to a certain degree, even if they're publicly standing by him and hoping for a bounce back season.

The fact that they aren't promising Mize a rotation spot is telling. Tarik Skubal, Alex Cobb, and Reese Olson are the only ones locked in, while Mize will have to compete with Kenta Maeda, Keider Montero, and Jackson Jobe for one of the remaining two spots.

Then again, the fact he wasn't traded before this deadline (or non-tendered after having his option declined) back in August perhaps indicates the Tigers and Mize are ready to renew their relationship in 2025. It feels like we're too far along in the process for any other outcome.