Tigers fans brace for heartbreak with latest Tarik Skubal contract projection

It would take Tigers fans a long time to get over having to watch Tarik Skubal leave in free agency after the 2026 season, but it's a terrifyingly real possibility. The Tigers gave Skubal a surprising amount of money to avoid arbitration this season ($10.15 million), which could indicate that they'd be willing to go far beyond their usual comfort zone to extend him. The fact that the Tigers even floated him an offer during the offseason is reassuring, too.

However, that offer didn't impress Skubal, and he's only driving his price higher and higher with his performance so far this season.

Jeff Passan predicted a slew of megadeals for star players who will be free agents in the next five or so years. Skubal is among them, but the figure he landed on will scare the pants off the Tigers front office. He's in Passan's third-highest tier at $400 million or more over 10 years.

$400 million would make Skubal the highest-paid pitcher of all time by total value, exceeding Yoshinobu Yamamoto's record 12-year, $325 million deal in 2023. $400 million is definitely Dodgers money, and it certainly isn't Tigers money.

Jeff Passan predicts a $400 million contract extension for Tarik Skubal, but will the Tigers be willing to go that high?

Other early predictions for Skubal have landed around $180 million, which does seem more doable for the Tigers, who offered Alex Bregman $171.5 million in the offseason and gave Justin Verlander $180 million over seven years in 2013 ($247.1 million in 2025 money). If the Tigers really did give Skubal $400 million, it would be, far and away, the most lucrative contract they've handed out to any player.

The Tigers love Skubal for all of the obvious reasons on top of the fact that he's a homegrown guy who's had an unlikely ascent: from ninth-round draft pick to Cy Young winner. But if his price goes over $300 million, no one would be surprised if the Tigers just throw their hands up and walk away, leaving him to the likes of the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Mets.

A couple of unfavorable circumstances already exist that don't make the Tigers' chances of getting a hometown discount look good. Skubal's represented by Scott Boras, and he sits on the MLBPA's executive subcommittee, where members are expected to set an example for earnings.

You can never say never, and the Tigers already stepped further outside their comfort zone than usual with their offer to Bregman. Maybe they could surprise fans and decide that Skubal is far too important to the organization to risk letting him go forever. But a long track record of penny-pinching coupled the magnitude of a $400 million prediction, which would be a lot for any team, don't make the odds look good.