Tigers fans concerned about Jack Flaherty's contract decision need this perspective

Some in Detroit Tigers land are freaking out over Jack Flaherty's decision to opt in for 2026. Thanks to an escalator based on number of starts made, Flaherty's salary for next season has doubled from $10 million to $20 million, leaving some feeling as if that money could be better spent elsewhere.

While Flaherty isn't a bargain anymore, some perspective is needed. If he had declined his option and hit the open market, the Tigers would need to spend the majority (if not all) of the savings on a suitable replacement in the rotation.

Beyond that, it's important to zoom out and understand where the market is right now for starting pitchers.

The crazy starting pitching market should make Tigers fans feel more at ease about Jack Flaherty opting in

Over the last few seasons, salaries for starting pitchers have exploded. One doesn't have to be an ace anymore to get paid big money. Let's take a look at a few examples.

Ahead of the 2024 season, the New York Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37 million deal that included a vesting option for 2026 at $18 million if Stroman had logged at least 140 innings in 2025. At the time, Stroman was coming off a 2023 campaign with the Chicago Cubs that saw him post a 3.95 ERA in just 136 2/3 innings.

In the first year of the deal, Stroman recorded a 4.31 ERA, which, based on his peripherals, was even the result of good luck. Stroman's 4.62 FIP and 4.93 xERA indicated that his actual performance was a good deal worse than his already mediocre results. They'd go on the DFA him following the 2025 trade deadline after he posted a 6.23 ERA in just 39 innings.

Last winter, the Los Angeles Angels made it a priority to sign Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million contract. At the time of the deal's signing, the southpaw had recorded more seasons with an ERA over five (three) than he had with a mark under four (just one) since coming over from Japan. He'd post a decent 3.99 ERA in 2025.

Looking at current free agents, The Athletic's Jim Bowden is predicting that former Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen will land a five-year, $135 million deal coming off a season in which he recorded a 4.83 ERA.

But back to Flaherty. While round two hasn't gone as well as his first stint in Detroit, it's important to mention that he was spectacular in 2024 with a 2.95 ERA over 106 2/3 innings before the Tigers dealt him to the Dodgers.

Even this year, despite his struggles, Flaherty consistently rose to the occasion and put up some of his best outings against playoff teams.

Under the hood, things look a bit better than the results say they were. Flaherty was better than average at generating whiffs, coming in the 66th percentile, which led him to a 27.6% strikeout rate, which is a top 20% mark amongst starting pitchers.

His 3.85 FIP and 4.03 xERA indicate that what was in his control and the quality of contact he surrendered should have yielded a significantly better performance than what his 4.64 ERA indicated.

Flaherty has always been a bit hot and cold, and while that isn't ideal, in the context of the market the Tigers are unlikely to do better. In fact, a case could be made that if Flaherty had chosen to walk and Detroit spent the entire $20 million on his replacement, they'd be worse off.

At the end of the day, Flaherty staying put is likely the best possible outcome for the Tigers, meaning that although he seems expensive, he's actually a pretty reasonable value with the potential to return to form and become a steal in 2026.