Worrisome Riley Greene trend suggests he may have already hit his defensive peak with Tigers

For most players, physical decline is a late-career problem. For 25-year-old Riley Greene, it’s becoming a mid-career question — and that’s what makes it alarming.

Two seasons ago, Greene averaged 28.1 feet per second in sprint speed — a mark that placed him comfortably in above-average center-field territory. Last season, that number slipped to 26.7. That’s not a blip. That’s a meaningful drop, and it’s one that arrived far earlier in a career arc than anyone expected.

Speed isn’t just a fun Statcast badge. For a player like Greene, it’s the foundation of his defensive value. It’s what made him a natural left fielder. It’s what allowed him to erase mistakes, close gaps in Comerica’s vast outfield, and turn doubles into long outs. When that speed erodes, everything downstream changes: range, routes, confidence, positioning — and eventually, role.

Speaking with Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic at the Winter Meetings in December, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch was candid about the concern. He framed Greene’s future in terms of wear and tear, DH days, and conserving his body. He talked about “little subtle things” in Greene’s pre-pitch setup that have negatively impacted his defense. He emphasized offseason speed work. He underscored that Greene “doesn’t have to be a burner” — only “an efficient runner.”

Read between the lines, and it becomes clear: the Tigers are already shifting their internal expectations. This is no longer about a young center fielder rounding into Gold Glove form. It’s about preserving what remains and adapting before the decline becomes irreversible.

That’s jarring because Greene was drafted, developed, and marketed as a franchise outfielder. A premium defender. A player whose glove and bat could anchor the middle of the diamond for a decade.

Instead, the Tigers are already contemplating how often they can get him “off his feet” and how to manage the physical toll of his style of play.

Tigers lowering internal expectations for Riley Greene signals he may have already peaked defensively

Speed peaks early in baseball. For most players, it crests in their early 20s and steadily declines. The troubling part isn’t that Greene’s speed dipped — it’s that it dipped this much, this soon. From 28.1 to 26.7 may look small on paper, but in outfield terms, it’s the difference between gliding to a ball and arriving a step late. It’s the difference between elite range and merely adequate.

It raises an uncomfortable possibility –– namely, that we’ve already seen Greene’s defensive peak.

That doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable player. Greene’s bat continues to develop. His plate discipline, power growth, and ability to drive the ball to all fields give him All-Star upside regardless of position. But it does mean the version of Greene who roamed center with ease — the one who looked like a future perennial Gold Glove candidate — may already be behind us. And if that’s true, it matters for how the Tigers build.

If Greene is trending toward a hybrid role that includes significant DH time — Detroit will eventually need another true left fielder to anchor the outfield. That’s a roster domino with real implications.

Hinch’s comments reflect an organization already preparing for that reality. They’re talking about efficiency instead of explosiveness. About positioning instead of range. About rest instead of repetition. Those are the conversations you have when you’re managing decline, not maximizing ascent.

Greene is young. He can still rebound. Offseason speed work can help. Mechanical tweaks can restore some burst. But the Tigers aren’t treating this as a minor hiccup. They’re treating it as a structural concern — something to plan around, not wish away.

For a franchise that has waited years for its next homegrown star, that’s a sobering development.

Greene may still be a cornerstone. He may still be an All-Star. He may still be the emotional heartbeat of this lineup. But the evidence — and the Tigers’ own words — suggest that the most dynamic version of him in the field might already be in the rearview mirror. And that reality changes everything about how Detroit must think about its future.