Detroit Tigers: Buyers or sellers? Justin Verlander’s future? MCB staff discusses

Jul 4, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Servicemen line the infield before the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers are at the unofficial half-way point of their season with a record of 44-44, which puts them, of course, on track for an 81-81 season. If that happens, it would be their first non-winning season since finishing at that same mark of .500 in 2010.

When we last gathered together for a staff roundtable, many of us felt the Tigers may take a step back this season, yet we all felt the team could put it together for one major push with the current group.

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The first half could not have started off better. A 6-0 record with sweeps of two division rivals. A week later that mark was 10-2.

After that high water mark, the Detroit Tigers went a terrible 34-42 to end the first half. A long stretch with ice-cold bats, followed by the starting rotation imploding, and the bullpen being as awful as we thought has led us to this mediocrity. It has always been one thing or another for the Tigers during their slow cascade through the American League Central standing.

Some fans think this team can still catch lightning in a bottle and make the postseason. Some of the staffers in our roundtable also believe that, but most of us thinks this team should take advantage of a unique opportunity to retool on the fly, and even if this team makes the postseason, do they honestly have enough to win it all?

What say you? Before you comment, see what we have to say.

Next: What has gone wrong?

Jul 11, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter

(41) reacts to his ejection from umpire Marty Foster as manager

holds Martinez back in the fifth inning of the game with the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

What has gone wrong in the first half for the Detroit Tigers and is it fixable?

Steve Mitzel: I go back to many of our predictions in the beginning of the year where the majority of us picked the Tigers to finish in second or lower. I won’t lie and say that I’m not disappointed with this team because I am extremely disappointed. Between awful management most of the time, injuries, a lackadaisical attitude and effort at times, a sorry bullpen, inconsistent bats, it has been a train wreck in my opinion. Even though I thought that they would not finish first, I never thought that mid July would see us starting upwards six to eight games. I think this is what happens when you have a bunch of players that have already “won” by having huge contracts. The Royals and Twins have budding stars that want to prove themselves and win. The only real standout on this team continues to be future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera.

Zane Stalberg: The Tigers have certainly disappointed. That would be a hard fact for anyone to argue. However, I firmly believe that the Tigers have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. While a divisional title may be a pipe dream at this point, a chance to play in the Wild Card game is certainly within reach. And, as the Kansas City Royals showed us, winning the AL Central only means so much.

For my money, the poor play can be most directly attributed to rotational depth, and Dave Dombrowski’s continued negligence in regards to his bullpen. If the brain trust in the Tigers’ front office can plug some of those holes, I view Detroit’s problems as ones that are easy to fix, and I see the Tigers as the most likely candidate, alongside the Angels, to secure a wild-card berth.

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Matt Pelc: I am not really surprised that this team is where they are, I picked them to finish in third place this year because of their failure to properly address the bullpen (again) and the question marks in the rotation with newcomers Shane Greene, Alfredo Simon, and the uncertainty over Justin Verlander‘s injury.

I thought maybe I had under estimated this team when they started the season so strong, but we’ve seen the real Tigers team every other week of the season. When once facet of the game is going strong, like being one of the best bullpens in baseball in May, the offense was listless. When the offense is rolling, the starting pitching and relief is in tatters. That is the definition of a .500 team. This team is just too inconsistent to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, let alone a fifth straight AL Central crown.

Blair Tatrault: The pitching, both starting and relief, has been disappointing. Aside from David Price, the rotation has been uneven. Likewise the pen has been typically Tiger-esque, which is to say largely ineffective. Several new set pieces are needed here, which is problematic. Verlander’s last start was encouraging but even if he’s right, that by itself won’t be enough.

Dave Holcomb:  As bad as the Tigers have been lately, they were a bit unfortunate in the first half because when the team was pitching well, it didn’t hit and when the lineup started hitting, the pitching plummeted.

It appears as if Detroit’s offense will be able to survive without Miguel Cabrera until August, if that is indeed when he returns, but this team’s problem is pitching and it is not fixable. Brad Ausmus sending Kyle Ryan to the minors in favor of Shane Greene is just his way of telling Tigers fans that he has no answer for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. What’s worse is he also needs a No. 4 starter because Alfredo Simon is 1-4 with a 11.12 ERA in his last five starts.

The bullpen needs help too, and Neftali Feliz is not the answer. That is too many problems to fix at the deadline. Not to mention, Detroit sits nine games behind the first place Kansas City Royals in the AL Central.

Tom Zahari: The Detroit Tigers are more stressful to watch than they are enjoyable. I am currently in medical school and the Tigers were supposed to be one of my escapes through it. Instead, they are a team that when I watch, I do not think, how are they going to win this game, but how are they going to lose it. They have been incredibly mediocre at 44-44 going into the break, but they show enough signs of life to give me a sliver of hope (I’m a Detroit Lions fan too, you have to find hope somewhere). Their lineup was anemic without Victor Martinez, but has produced at over a 5.5 run clip in the last month. Now, they just have to put the pitching together. The American League is a league of mediocrity in 2015. If there was a year the Tigers could be mediocre and still make a run, it is this year. If they add pitching, they could still be contenders.

Tom Pollin: The Tigers first half can be summed up with a comparison to the 1973 Belmont Stakes. Sham (Tigers) and Secretariat (Royals) both break from the gate at a blistering pace. They head into the first turn neck and neck. They charge down the backstretch and slowly at first Secretariat (Royals) begins to slowly edge ahead of Sham (Tigers). As they near the halfway mark and Secretariat (yes, still the Royals) begins to open push out ahead, three lengths, four lengths, five games, and now own a nine game lead.

Not saying that the Tigers (Sham) will lose by 25 games/lengths like Sham (Tigers) did but after this past weekend in Minnesota, this race is slipping away from the Tigers (Sham) rapidly.

The Tigers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 10-10 in their last 20 and 15-15 in their last 30 games. That isn’t a trend that inspires confidence.

Is it fixable? Not with this pitching staff. The only team in the American League that’s given up more runs this season is the Boston Red Sox. I don’t see any reason to believe this staff can pick up the pace in the second half of the season.

Matt St Jean: The Detroit Tigers first half has been one of the most boring stretches of baseball I have ever watched. Night after night, when one thing is going good or ok, something else falls apart. Lately they have been scoring runs, but has still been unwatchable for the first time in almost a decade.

Of course its fixable, everything in baseball is fixable when you’re still in the hunt. But I dont think this team is equipped to win the World Series with its current pitching staff.

Next: Buyers or sellers?

Jun 13, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder

(52) at bat against the Cleveland Indians at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Should the Tigers be buyers or sellers approaching the trading deadline? 

Steve: I firmly believe that the Tigers should be sellers at this point. But not sellers for a rebuilding 80-90 loss season next year, but retooling. They have a strong core yet and need to supplement with some younger talent that they have depleted in the farm system by constantly being buyers. Here’s the thing for me – Dombrowski has chosen to go for it the past four years and he really put the team on the field that had a viable chance to win a championship. Three of those four years lead us to an ALCS or higher and I want my GM to go for it. But I also want him to realize that sometimes going for just a wild card and losing in the first game and going home empty-handed is a stupid move. If you are going to put all your chips on the table in Price, Cespedes, Simon and others, then you better believe that the dealer doesn’t have twenty one under those cards. The dealer is going to win this year. Sell, retool and let’s go get em in 2016.

Zane: I think the Tigers should buy at the 2015 deadline. Firstly, I find it unlikely that Dombrowski will sell, so by that logic, it makes the most sense to make one last run at a title. Secondly, I find it equally hard to believe that this group of Tigers nets enough for a true rebuild, unless Detroit is willing to go the whole nine yards and trade away talent like J.D. Martinez. And lastly, I believe that with one more quality arm in the rotation such as Jeff Samardzija, and one or two more in the bullpen, such as J.J. Hoover, Detroit could make a run in a weak American League.

Matt P.: For Dave Dombrowski to “fix” this team and make them contenders this year, he would need to add two middle-tier starters, a lefty middle reliever and a set-up man. The Tigers do not have anything in their farm system that would net a package like that. Perhaps they could give up someone on the big league roster, much like they did last year to acquire David Price with Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly going off in return, but this team has so little depth that if you take away from a strength the team has right now (offense), the scales will probably tip back in the other direction.

I’ve been saying this for weeks, but the best course of action for the Tigers is to sell at the deadline. Trade as many pending free agents as possible including Price, Simon, Yoenis Cespedes, Joakim Soria, and Rajai Davis. The Tigers’ future may not be as bleak as we have predicted with the emergence of J.D. Martinez and Jose Iglesias to serve, along with Miggy, as cornerstones of a (hopefully) rejuvenated franchise in the coming years, but they could get some great prospects and young major leaguers for these guys. They could “retool” and not “rebuild,” especially with an impressive list of free agents this offseason throughout baseball.

Blair: If the team doesn’t roar out of the All-Star break, Dombrowski should listen keenly to offers for Price and others. That doesn’t imply a long-term rebuilding plan is necessary. Any talent received in return could be used to buttress a weak farm system and/or make the team more competitive in 2016.

Dave: They should be sellers. Detroit has not proven to me in the last month that they can contend for the World Series title. Now, I believe they still will buy because they sit only 3.5 games behind the second wild card spot. GM Dave Dombroski will likely go for it once again, but with so many expiring contracts, I believe it would be best to sell guys like David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Rajai Davis and regroup to fight another day.

Tom Z: If the Tigers think they have a remote chance at making the postseason, they will be buyers. They have a solid opportunity to make the postseason and should be buyers at the trade deadline. Their lineup has been productive since the beginning of June, even without Cabrera in the lineup. The problem has been their pitching and if they buy on starting pitching rentals, they can make one last run before the rebuild. The Tigers have pulled out deals in the past and can do it again at the trade deadline. A Scott Kazmir/Tyler Clippard combo from the Oakland A’s would be reasonable for the Tigers to acquire at the deadline.

Tom P: Sorry Tom Z. but the Tigers should be sellers. It’s true that they are only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot at this point but you have to look beyond that to the overall state of this team.

The Tigers organization isn’t rich with Major League prospects and can’t afford to package what they do have for an outside shot to make a postseason run this year. Right now it doesn’t look like David Price will be back and they could also lose Yoenis Cespedes in the offseason. Use them now to bring prospects with Major League potential into the system.

Miguel Cabrera will only be 33 at the start of next season and J.D. Martinez will be 28. Cabrera still has two to three years where he can still be expected to hit at an elite level. There’s no reason a rebuild needs to take three to five years. Those two form a strong core that could bring the Tigers right back to prominence in a year or two, provided some of those prospects they bring in are pitchers.

Matt S.: I am hoping sellers. As I just mentioned, I don’t think they have the pitching to win the World Series. I don’t want them to trade even more of an already depleted farm system just to lose in a one game playoff game. They need to get what they can for David Price, as he clearly does not want to be here after this season and the Tigers can’t afford him anyway.

Next: Can J.V. be saved?

Jul 10, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher

(35) pitches to the Minnesota Twins in the 1st inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

What, if anything, can the Tigers do to get Justin Verlander back to being a consistently reliable starter? Should they consider moving him to the bullpen?

Steve: Verlander wasn’t ready to come back to the big leagues and was rushed. I am sure that the untold story that we aren’t privy to had a lot to do with agents and egos. Had he stayed down I think he would’ve returned to a form that we saw him pitch in Friday nights outing against the Twinkies sooner. He will be a reliable starter. Not an ace, but a reliable starter. Matt and Dave discussed in Tiger Talk that JV needs to master some new pitches and I believe in the off season he will do just that. JV will be a strong number two pitcher for the Tigers. Sanchez a strong number three. The Tigers need their ace and they will have a chance to get him (it won’t be Price) in the off season. JV will eventually end up in the bullpen further down in his career, but not now.

Zane: I think Justin Verlander may be back, in some form. It seems unlikely that he wins another MVP trophy any time soon, but he showed the ability to pitch effectively against Toronto before things got away from him, and then he was brilliant against the Twins in his last time out. To me, Justin Verlander is the least of the Tigers’ worries, and should not be moved to the bullpen.

Betsided

Matt P.: I was encouraged by his start, but I was not encouraged by the way his injury was handled and the excuses made by and for him. The team, team’s announcers and Justin Verlander kept saying it was “Spring Training” for him. That might be true, but there is such a thing as “extended Spring Training.” If Verlander and/or the Tigers thought he had to do some on the job re-training, why was he on the big league roster? If this team fancies themselves a contender, they are risking losing precious games in the pennant chase by putting a “still in Spring Training J.V.” out there. His first and last start put the team in a position to win, but his middle three games were disasters.

Verlander needs to understand that he is not Verlander of 2011 and 2012. He needs to rely more on his secondary pitches and use some craftiness and veteran know-how to record outs. The days of blowing batters away on a regular basis when he gets into trouble are over. If this happens, he can be a solid number 2-3 starter through the length of his contract. If not, all bets are off.

One thing is for sure–the Tigers have way too much invested in him to make him a reliever.

Blair: At this stage of his career, there’s nothing anybody outside of Verlander can do to get him back on the rails. As mentioned, his last start was encouraging and his velocity was fine. It’s too early to talk about moving him to the bullpen. He must be given the balance of the season to work things out. If he recaptures his consistency in the second half and the team retains Price, suddenly the Big Three (with Anibal Sanchez) looks pretty good.

Dave: No because they don’t have a replacement for him in the rotation. Unfortunately, Verlander is the least of the Tigers problems right now. He did pitch well in his last start, so hopefully moving forward he continues that. The Tigers need better pitching from their No. 4 and No. 5 starters.

Tom Z.: Verlander should not go to the bullpen. He has the stuff to be a starter, but he has to figure out how to use it. Although Friday night’s numbers looked good, Verlander got away with a lot of pitches up in the zone and over the plate. His breaking stuff is some of the best I remember it being. If he takes some velocity off of his fastball and relies on his breaking pitches, Verlander can be effective. He just has to locate his pitches and not fall in love with his fastball like he did against the Blue Jays when he was rocked.

Tom P.: Verlander was a throwback which is why I have always been a fan. He could start strong then control the game through the middle innings. Once he reached the seventh or eighth inning out would come the power fastball again, 98 to 100 MPH and completely unhittable. He’s 32 years old and because of arm problems plus the stage of career he’s in, those days are gone.

That’s not to say his days of bringing heat are over but he has to pick his spots and be more willing to use his other pitches. Look at last Friday against the Twins. He was masterful. It was the bullpen that blew up the game. Let’s hope we see more of that in the second half.

As for the question about possibly moving him to the bullpen, not for $28 million a season they’re not.

Matt S.: Have him talk to John Smoltz, maybe? Get ex-girlfriend Emily Yuen back? I really have no idea. I feel like he doesn’t listen to anybody, and would be so upset if asked to go to the bullpen he would give up all together.

Next: First half MVP? Most disappointing?

Jul 4, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher David Price (14) pitches in the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Who has been the Tigers’ MVP in the first half? Who has been the biggest disappointment?

Steve: Clearly the MVP for the Tigers is Miguel Cabrera. His numbers are monstrous this year and while he was short in home runs, he was on pace to win a batting title again as well as an RBI title and be in the MVP consideration yet again. What’s most impressive to me about Miggy is that he continues to find ways to do it with a supporting cast that sometimes doesn’t. Kinsler in front of him has struggled, VMart behind him was gone and the Tigers couldn’t find the right clean up hitter and he still got it done. The biggest disappointment to me this year would have to be the pitching of Anibal Sanchez. I think the Tigers were right in parting ways with Rick Porcello (how’s he doing Red Sox fans?) but they were relying on Sanchez to bring the consistency that he has shown over the past three years. He seems to be getting back on track, but his struggles early have helped dig the hole the Tigers are in.

Zane: Without question, the Tigers’ first half MVP has been David Price. It would not be pretty to imagine Detroit’s outlook without their 15-3 record in Price’s starts, and it would be equally ugly to see the ERA among Tigers pitchers without him. Price is 9-2 with a 2.38 ERA and one of the primary reasons that the Tigers have even the slimmest of chances at making the postseason.

On the other hand, the biggest disappointment for the Tigers has been Ian Kinsler. I thought Kinsler could have a huge year offensively hitting at the front of the vaunted Tigers offense, but he has been mediocre at the plate, and has even regressed defensively. Beyond that, he has left much to be desired in the clubhouse.

Matt P.: Despite the Tigers’ poor showing in the first-half, they have had some good stories. Miguel Cabrera still continues to be the best player in the game when healthy, and he was the only guy still getting hits when the lineup went ice cold from mid-April to mid-May. How can you not love J.D. Martinez’s performance this year? So many people predicted him to regress this year but, after a cool start, he has actually played better than his breakout year of 2014. Jose Iglesias, a guy who hit below .100 in the Grapefruit League has consistently been on base at the bottom of the lineup, not to mention he is worth the price of admission for his defense alone.

But the MVP of the Tigers’ first half has to be David Price. Although he had 1-2 stinkers early on, he has been the only stable one on that starting staff. Detroit is 15-3 in his starts this season. For an inconsistent team, that’s all you need to know about who is the team’s MVP.

Biggest disappointment has to be Shane Greene. Tigers’ fans were very excited seeing him come over to the team from the Yankees where he had a lot of success as a rookie in 2014. At worst he would have been an average fifth man, but since his 0.38 ERA after three starts, he doesn’t appear to be even a major leaguer right now. His absence at the back-end of the rotation has meant there is a revolving door of minor league spot starters not ready for the big leagues.

Blair: Miguel Cabrera was having another monster first half before his injury and is the team’s first half MVP, with Price a close second. The biggest disappointment is the complete meltdown of Shane Greene, along with Alfredo Simon’s recent woes. Although he’s picked it up with the stick a bit lately, Nick Castellanos‘s offense and defense have also disappointed and I no longer see him as a major league third baseman.

Dave: Miguel Cabrera is the team’s MVP. He leads the league with a .350 batting average and also has 15 home runs and 54 RBI in 277 at-bats. It is too bad the Tigers have to live without him until at least the middle of August.

The biggest disappointment is a lot tougher to gauge because there are so many choices. Ian Kinsler and Alex Avila are exactly pulling their weight on offense although Avila missed significant time. As previously mentioned, Greene and Simon have been horrible lately, and Anibal Sanchez had a less than desirable start, but I would go with Verlander.

Yes, Verlander missed a lot of time as well, however, with the amount of money he is making, in order for the Tigers to be true contenders, he needs to be an ace. When he has been on the mound this year, Verlander has been far from an ace.

Tom Z.: The Tigers have had the interesting dynamic of their players who have been good have been really good, and they’re bad players have been really bad. J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Iglesias, David Price, and David Price could all get votes, but J.D. has my vote with Price as a close second. Martinez has boosted the Tigers’ offense while they were without Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera. He has been everything the Tigers hoped he would be, and more in 2015. I thought he would take a step back, but he has become the Tigers’ Jose Bautista.

Tom P.: Without a doubt the team’s MVP is J.D. Martinez. He started hot then slumped terribly as he tried to take some of the weight of the offense off of Cabrera’s shoulders while Victor Martinez finished rehabbing his knee. Once he quit trying to pull everything and went back to using all fields he’s been one of the hottest hitters in the American League. No reason to believe he won’t continue that trend in the second half.

The biggest disappointment has to be Anibal Sanchez. With Scherzer gone and Verlander injured the Tigers needed Sanchez to step up and be a number two pitcher behind Price. From the start of the season up to June 3 the Tigers were 2-10 in games he started. Not good enough over a time when Shane Greene was falling apart and Alfredo Simon was beginning to struggle.

Matt S.: JD Martinez is the easy answer, but I have to go with my man Alex Wilson. He’s been an absolute bulldog and a crucial reason why we’re not even worse.

Biggest disappointment has been Shane Greene. He should be in AA Erie.

Next: What does the future hold for YOUR Detroit Tigers?