Detroit Tigers: Roster Predictions Heading into Spring Training
Predicting the Starting Rotation for the Detroit Tigers
10. Matthew Boyd
Last week, I did a Opening Day rotation projection 1.0 so this will be “2.0” with a few minor tweaks. Boyd will lead the staff in 2021 and looks to forget what happen in 2020.
11. Spencer Turnbull
He keeps the ball from going out of the ballpark and has been the Tigers most consistent pitcher the past two seasons. I am still sticking to my gut instinct that he will continue to grow as a pitcher in 2021.
12. Michael Fulmer
Many of the projections seem to be universal across the board for Fulmer from a fantasy baseball perspective. 140-150 innings, ERA near 5 with FanGraphs’s ZiPS projections have him at 106. For Fulmer, I just believe projections can be thrown out the window. He was learning to throw with less velocity and showed progress towards the end of the season.
For the Tigers to be competitive, they need Fulmer to give some quality innings early on in the season.
13. Tarik Skubal
Skubal was recently listed as one of the 10 pitchers posed to break out along with Casey Mize according to MLB.com. The main reason is because of his spin rate on his fastball, which averages around 2,422.
"“Still, it was an extremely small sample (32 innings), and there were signs that Skubal — the No. 24 overall prospect in baseball — will succeed, including striking out more than a batter per frame. That can be attributed in part to his impressive fastball velocity and spin rate: Skubal’s average four-seam velo of 94.4 mph ranked fourth among lefty starting pitchers, sandwiched between Blake Snell and Julio Urías, and his average fastball spin rate of 2,422 rpm was in the 82nd percentile of MLB.”"
I see him making the rotation out of camp. He showed in a limited sample size of what he is capable of doing. There was a reason why he was number three on our top 20 prospects list.
14. Julio Teheran
Of the starting pitchers in camp, Teheran is the only one who has thrown 200 innings. Yes, he got crushed last season but as Chris Brown said in his article, expect him to have 30 starts with an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.50 range. I know fans were upset about losing out on Rick Porcello but this will be either a signing that gives Detroit a veteran starter that will give them meanful innings or another Matt Moore or Ivan Nova situation. Take your pick.
If Detroit goes with a six-man rotation early in the season, I am going to pencil Norris to beat out Tyler Alexander for that sixth spot. Norris wants to start. He has made that abundantly clear. While he is ready for whatever role Detroit will give him, I could see Norris getting starts early in the season as the team’s sixth starter.