Detroit Tigers: The first 40 games of 2021 has shown little growth

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Detroit Tigers fans are familiar with the musings of Sparky Anderson and what he said about the first 40 games for any baseball team. It is an indication of where you are heading as a team. The first 40 games marks the first quarter of an MLB season, and so far we have seen injuries affect various teams, and plenty of batting averages in the .150 range.

Granted, the expectations for Detroit to be a playoff team are rather far-fetched, but fans expected better. The Tigers still hold the worst run differential in all of baseball (-69) and their bullpen ERA is 6.19, the worst in the league. Even the strikeout rate is abysmal, as the team has struck out 28.5% of the time, which puts them dead last in the league.

The defense, which posted a -12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last year, is seeing errors from sure-hand defenders like Niko Goodrum and Jeimer Candelario. Already this year they’ve accumulated -20 DRS, and rank dead last with a -19.3 team defensive rating according to FanGraphs.

If you are looking for a more optimistic point of view about the first 40 games, and hope perhaps the Tigers’ fortunes will turn around, all you need to do is look at the recent past. Since the “rebuild” began under General Manager Al Avila in 2017, only once have the Tigers been at .500 after 40 games, and that was in 2017, when they finished 64-98.

Oddly enough, in 2018 and 2019, Detroit was 18-22 at the 40 game mark, but they finishsed 64-98 again in 2018, and then went an abysmal 47-114 in 2019.

Manager A.J Hinch has tried every single lineup combination possible to unlock some sort of success, but he’s had very little luck so far. So, let’s take a look at the first 40 games and break it down like Chris Brown and I do for our Tigers podcast with the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. While there are some references about how ugly the stats are for the Tigers, we will examine player performances as well.

Tigers left fielder Robbie Grossman flies out against Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks during the third inning on Sunday, May 16, 2021, at Comerica Park.Tigers Chi2 /

“You lose, you smile, and you come back the next day. You win, you smile you come back the next day”-Ken Griffey Jr.

The Good in the first 40 Detroit Tigers games:

Robbie Grossman has been one of the better free-agent pickups in quite some time. He has provided a key skill Detroit has been lacking for years, and that is getting on base. He is walking at a 16.6% clip, and after a slow start in April it looks like his swing mechanics are back in line from last season.

As you recall from our get-to-know Robbie Grossman piece a few months back, it appears he is getting back into his habit of using the leg kick that worked so well for him in 2020 by driving the ball more with his lower half. So far in May he is batting .314/.429/.588 with an OPS of 1.017.

2019

2021

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario has been the team’s most consistent hitter, batting .286/.363/.393 for a wRC+ of 117, second only to Grossman. He is walking around 10% and his strikeout rate is right at his career average, though he’s not hitting the ball hard yet. His hard-hit contact percentage is down near the 29th percentile.

The reason could be the new ball MLB has been using for 2021, which has balls flying one to two feet shorter. Regardless, Candelario has been a steady performer and one of the few bright spots on the season so far.

Matthew Boyd

Boyd has been the team’s most consistent starter, with an ERA of 2.45. Even with the start against the Cubs yesterday in which he allowed four earned runs, he is sporting a WHIP of 0.97 and has gone six or more innings six times this season, which is impressive, considering the Tigers had no one go six or more innings in 2020 outside of Spencer Turnbull.

This is a case where wins and losses do not matter. His 2-4 record does not show what type of value he has had for Detroit.

Michael Fulmer

Hinch’s decision to put Fulmer back in the bullpen has paid off, with Fulmer rocking a 2.35 ERA so far in 5 appearances in May. He became the first Detroit Tigers pitcher in history to earn a save the day after he started. While the rest of the bullpen has been inconsistent, Fulmer’s returned velocity of 97-98 MPH is a good sign that at least Hinch has one arm he can go to without too many issues.

Honorable mentions: Casey Mize’s last three starts, Harold Castro playing wherever and hitting.

. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /

As Chris said on the podcast, the Bad during our segments is usually reserved for players who have some redeeming qualities but perhaps have been struggling during a stretch of time or they are creeping towards the “ugly” and may not ever dig themselves out.

The Bad in the first 40 Detroit Tigers games:

Miguel Cabrera Hot Takes

The sports talk narrative that the contract of Miguel Cabrera is the reason why this team does not spend is laughable. Cabrera just turned 38 back in April. After a rough month in which he spent time on the IL, and was considered to be “finished,” so far in May he is batting .229/.315/.229.

Now, you look at the statline and know that is a rough stretch of road there. He will never be the same MVP player he once was, and he’s not playing well. But enough trying to bury the guy, and stop hating on the man for getting paid. The narrative is old and weak.

Akil Baddoo

I disagree with our friends over at Detroit Jock City that Baddoo has not performed better than people expected. There were no expectations for a player who has not seen regular playing time since 2018. With his 30 games in Detroit this season, he has already played more than his injury-shortened 2019 season. He goes deep into counts and has shown speed on the base paths compared to another Rule 5 draft pick we will get to later.

One other factor to consider about Baddoo. He is walking at a 9.3% clip in 97 plate appearances and has a wRC+ of 110.

Obviously he has struggled with a 38.1% strikeout rate, and his average exit velocity of 85.6 MPH is in the bottom 7% of baseball. With the Tigers really not having any other options available in the outfield fans will just have to see how he continues to adjust.

Tarik Skubal

As Jon recently pointed out in his latest article, Skubal is still under construction. He has an xFIP of 6.21 and has given up 17 walks in 33 innings pitched so far. Could he benefit by going down to Toledo to get some work? Well, then the question becomes who would you call up from the farm system? Matt Manning? Wily Peralta? When you think about it, there aren’t many other options.

Skubal has been bad but there is room for improvement to “good”

Spencer Torkelson’s start in West Michigan.

A lot of fans are look at the nightly box score for Spencer Torkelson and see he is off to a rough start, which is bad, no doubt. But after reading J.J. Cooper’s article in Baseball America ($), the minor leagues, stat-wise, are off to a rough start in general, with bad defense, too many walks given up, and batters striking out too much.

The hope is we get to see Torkelson start to drive the ball soon, but it is way too early to assume the worst, based on the data that is out there.

The Ugly in the first 40 Detroit Tigers games:

Victor Reyes

A.J. Hinch has shown he is not afraid to change things up, and when Nomar Mazara came back from the IL, Victor Reyes was sent to Toledo. Before it seemed like Reyes was on the roster because the Tigers didn’t really have any other option, but even with all of Akil Baddoo’s struggles, he has shown flashes of extra-base power and speed. We haven’t been able to say that for Reyes.

One of the ugliest moments of the season was watching Reyes lose that flyball in centerfield in Oakland. He is who is he, a player who does not walk a lot, strikes out, and does not hit for power. His fWAR of -0.7 was among the worst on the team.

Willi Castro

The Willi Castro experiment at shortstop lasted until April 21, during which time he put up a DRS of -2. Since then he has been playing at second base and looking no better defensively, piling up a DRS of -4 at his new position.

At the plate, he is striking out around 30% with little power and a wRC+ of 59. He seems to be pressing too much at the plate but there aren’t any real alternatives available (Jonathan Schoop at first, Isaac Paredes in Toledo, Renato Nunez a non-factor). If he continues to struggle, the Tigers could put Schoop back at second, move Eric Haase at first with Miguel Cabrera, and give Castro time to figure things out in Triple-A.

Buck Farmer and the rotating bullpen arms

The ongoing road up I-75 from Toledo to Detroit was expected to be busy, but seeing Buck Farmer head down to Toledo was ugly. He has been with the ball club since 2014 and while his K per 9 numbers have been on the decline, it is strange to think he is not with the team anymore.

Joe Jimenez’s struggles continue to get worse, but once again, if you look to Toledo or Erie for help there aren’t many options. Alex Lange got the opportunity but was just sent back down last night after allowing five home runs in 13.1 innings pitched. Farmer and Lange combined to allow 11 home runs in 24 innings pitched. Yikes.

Gregory Soto’s four saves are nice, but 13 walks in 13 innings pitched is not, nor is Bryan Garcia’s 10 walks in 14.1 innings pitched. The bullpen has been a nightly adventure.

Another free agent pitcher hits the IL

Julio Teheran hit the 60 day IL, joining the ranks of free-agent pitchers the Tigers have signed like Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, and Ivan Nova. Taijuan Walker, who the Tigers were rumored to be interested in the off-season, and I thought would be a good fit in the rotation, is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.20.

The Minnesota Twins are in last place but…

The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 games compared to Detroit being 6-4. Twins fans and the league expected them to be better. Even with that in mind, FanGraphs still gives the Twins a 9.0% chance they will make the postseason. Meanwhile, Detroit still stands at 0%.

Detroit has given us some exciting moments this season, from Akil Baddoo memorable start to Casey Mize continuing to grow as a starter, but the lack of depth on the team is forcing A.J. Hinch to be creative. The hope is that the farm system starts to show a few budding talents to come through, but we shall see if they get an opportunity.

For now, as the Pistons and Red Wings seasons come to an end, we watch the Detroit Tigers, hopeful they can improve and provide some consistent entertainment value.

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The Good in the first 40 Detroit Tigers games:

The Bad in the first 40 Detroit Tigers games:

The Ugly in the first 40 Detroit Tigers games:

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