MLB insider just gave Tigers their only answer regarding Tarik Skubal trade rumors

Ever since the misleading report of the gap between the Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal came out, the rumors have become incessant. From delusional fantasies from rival fans on social media to actual trade rumors, the noise has gotten deafening.

As the saga unfolds, fans are starting to feel more and more panic stricken. After so many dark years, the Tigers have arrived in the realm of contenders, and if Scott Harris makes the right moves this offseason they'll be poised to take the next step forward. But not without Skubal. Trading Skubal wouldn't just mean failing to progress — it would represent a major step backwards.

Fortunately, there's some good news on that front. The idea of trading Skubal making absolutely no sense is starting to gain more steam, as our friends Brian Kenny and insider Joel Sherman break down for MLB TV.

MLB Insider Joel Sherman spells out why trading Tarik Skubal now makes no sense for the Tigers

According to Sherman, there are three relevant pieces of information to consider, all of which link to one another and create a compelling case to hang on to Skubal, even if that means letting him walk for nothing after the 2026 season.

First, is the fact that as a Scott Boras client and a starting pitcher who only has one true competitor for the title of most dominant ace in the game, Skubal is likely going to want to test the open market no matter what. While it's not completely unheard of for a player repped by Scott Boras to agree to an extension (Jose Altuve is the most well known), that typically only happens in the case of a wild overpay, a player who is far from the top of his position, or a player who is completely comfortable in his environment. We're not sure any of those would apply to Skubal right now.

Unfortunately, that means the offers for his services, even with mutiple teams licking their chops, will be light. No one wants to give up the farm for one year, just to watch him walk away once the season concludes. Sherman draws a parallel to the Corbin Burnes trade between the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles ahead of the 2024 season.

The two prospects who went back to Milwaukee in that deal were Joey Ortiz — ranked No. 63rd overall by MLB Pipeline who just put up a 67 wRC+ in his sophomore season — and DL Hall — who has topped out as a mop-up man out of the pen. Burnes left Baltimore for the Arizona Diamondbacks after just one season.

Further complicating matters is the collective barganing agreement uncertainty. Even if a team was prepared to give Skubal the $400 million he craves under normal circumstances, the CBA expiring next December will dump cold water on that real quick.

No one knows what the baseball landscape will look like at that point. Will a salary cap be put in place? Will luxury tax penalties become more exorbitant? Will MLB follow in the NBA's footsteps and adopt a hard cap after the final tax apron? Is there some other unpalatable change on the horizon for the usual big-spending suspects? This uncertainty will give teams pause in ponying up unless the Tigers accept a low-ball offer, and it will make it even harder for a rival club to sign the lefty to a blockbuster extension.

Finally, why now? Given the factors that are depressing Skubal's market, it can't get much lower if the Tigers were to hold on to him and then re-evaluate at the trade deadline. Theoretically, if the Tigers decided to hold Skubal through the offseason just to do an about-face at the deadline, that would mean something went horribly wrong with their 2026 campaign.

In that situation, extracting value from Skubal will be more prudent. The offers will be lower than they are now, but not by much. As Sherman posits, if teams are offering "80 to 90 percent" of the value they'd offer now, did the Tigers really lose all that much? Getting a look at the team with him in the fold for the first half of 2026 means a lot more for Detroit and their future than a marginally better prospect package.

This is a crucial decision, and not one to be taken lightly. With so much up in the air beyond 2026, moving on from Skubal now might be the worst possible decision the Tigers can make.