Tarik Skubal's departure points to Riley Greene extension, but it's complicated

With contract extension discussions rising to the surface in March, Detroit Tigers All-Star outfielder Riley Greene is someone to monitor.

During a recent episode of the Foul Territory podcast, The Athletic's Jim Bowden said he'd get a Greene extension done right now if he were the Tigers, particularly in light of the fact that Detroit is likely to lose their superstar ace, Tarik Skubal, in free agency following the season.

Beyond the logic of holding onto one star while losing another, Bowden's main reasoning here was that Greene's price will only climb if he hits something like 40 homers in 2026, a very real possibility that his increasing amount of dingers per year points to (24 HR in 2024, 36 HR last season). ESPN even predicted recently that Greene could hit 50 homers this season.

Tigers might have reservations about Riley Greene extension

In terms of Greene's proven power at the plate, Bowden's point is well taken. However, there are other concerns with Greene that work in the opposite direction as far as an extension is concerned.

Greene regressed in multiple areas last season, which was alarming to see from a 24-year-old (Greene turned 25 on September 28). Besides his franchise-record 201 strikeouts driving up his strikeout rate from the year prior, Greene also suffered declines in batting average, walk rate, and sprint speed in the outfield, the latter metric suggesting that Greene's best days defensively are already in the rearview.

Foul Territory's Scott Braun and A.J. Pierzynski acknowledged some of these concerns about Greene in pushing back on Bowden's recommendation for an extension.

Braun noted that the Tigers, being the analytics-based organization that they are, might be worried about Greene's on-base percentage, which declined sharply from .348 (2024) to .313 (2025) in a year.

Pierzynski suggested that Detroit definitely wants to see Greene increase his contact rate but, interestingly, he proposed a middle ground for a Greene extension that wasn't quite as gung-ho as Bowden's stance but didn't toss aside Greene's value entirely, either. Pierzynski suggested that Greene might be a mid-season extension candidate if he displays an increased contact rate in the first half of 2026, easing Detroit's concerns.

Despite his growing power, Greene's decline in other areas of the game are beginning to eat away at his chance for the superstar label, a label which, according to Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller, would likely set up Greene for a $250 million-ish contract by the team he hits free agency in 2028.

If the Tigers think Greene can reverse some of his downward-trending characteristics and rekindle his chance at superstardom, they'd be wise to extend him now — as suggested by Bowden — especially since a quarter-million dollars down the line could be outside their wheelhouse.

On the other hand, the longer we see Greene remain unextended, the more evidence we'll have to suggest that the Tigers aren't betting on Greene to be anything other than a depreciating asset who once showed now-lost superstar promise.