Tigers insider speculates Casey Mize extension might be harder to pull off than expected

For years, Detroit Tigers fans waited impatiently for Casey Mize to become the pitcher they thought he was destined to become after the club made him the first overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft. There were starts and stops, injuries and setbacks, and a whole lot of frustration as Mize spent the first five years of his major league career tossing a paltry 291 innings for a 4.36 ERA.

Last season, things finally began to click for the right-hander, though his 2025 campaign was an uneven one. Mize posted a 3.15 ERA in the first half of the season, but he spiraled in the second half, much like the Tigers overall, and posted a 4.92 mark after the All-Star break.

This year, Mize has seemingly kicked things up a notch again, with a 2.79 ERA over 14 starts and 77 1/3 innings.

He's dealt with injuries again this season, but he's been so much more effective than last year that he's already surpassed his 2025 fWAR total, 2.4, with a 2.6 mark that he's compiled in roughly half the innings he hurled last year.

That brings about the question as to whether or not Detroit should extend the free-agent-to-be. On the one hand, it looks like the once-promising arm is finally living up to his potential, but as Tigers insider Corey Stavenhagen outlines, the answer isn't as simple as it looks.

Casey Mize's future outlook in Detroit is just as murky as the Tigers' plans for the rest of 2026

Detroit went 22-14 from June 1 to the All-Star break, which is good for the best record in the American League over that span. However, they're still 6.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central lead and 3.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

As Stavenhagen notes, much of the answer to the Mize extension question hinges on whether or not the club believes it can be a buyer at the trade deadline. The Tigers are within striking distance of a playoff spot, but a crowded field means they'd have to leap over six teams to secure the final wild card berth, while the Twins, Guardians, and White Sox are all ahead of them in the division chase. The number of teams bunched up here matters.

That leads us to another potential conclusion, which is trading Mize away at the deadline. Stavenhagen draws the parallel to the 2024 trade that sent Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and notes that Detroit could still opt to re-sign Mize in free agency after cashing him in for prospects at the deadline.

Another factor to consider is what the starting rotation will look like come 2027. Flaherty, who won't be missed, joins Mize as a free agent this winter, as will Tarik Skubal.

The most important element will be cost. Stavenhagen speculates that if Mize exceeds 3 fWAR, he could land a contract that pays him $25 million annually. Trying to bring that number down by going with a longer-term offer is also risky given Mize's checkered injury past. Finally, committing that kind of money to Mize with Valdez's contract on the books would likely guarantee a future without Skubal.

With so much up in the air, to say nothing about the contentious CBA negotiations, which could also play a role, it seems like committing big money to Mize would be a mistake. He's finally pitching as the Tigers have hoped, and while most of his underlying metrics are strong, his average fastball velocity has dipped nearly a mile per hour, falling from 94.7 MPH last year to 93.9 so far this year.

That could be a potential red flag, and it might behoove the Tigers to cash in on Mize while his value is at its peak, regardless of whether they plan to chase a playoff spot or take their poor start as a sign that they need to reset.

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