Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects: No. 15 Bryant Packard

Welcome to the first-ever installment of the Motor City Bengals Top 20 Detroit Tigers prospects. The MCB staff has compiled our prospect lists and we will be releasing our consensus rankings, along with a breakdown of each player, in a series of articles in the coming days. Today, we look at #15 on our list, Bryant Packard.

The left-handed-hitting Packard has lost weight in the off-season by changing his diet and is now moving to first base, a position that the Tigers have not had a homegrown prospect rise through the ranks since Tony Clark. For now, until Spencer Torkelson is told otherwise, Packard’s hit first tool may help him get to first base at Comerica Park faster.

Background

Packard was drafted in the 5th round of the 2019 draft out of East Carolina University at the slot value of $386,600. Under manager Cliff Godwin, ECU has been one of the consistent programs within the last decade. Since he has taken over as manager in 2014, the Pirates have had 14 players drafted to the majors.

Packard was an outstanding hitter under Godwin, posting a .406/.462/.671 (which lead the AAC conference) with an OPS of 1.122 in his sophomore season (in 249 plate appearances) and followed that up with a strong Cape Cod league campaign for Wareham, hitting .305/.421/.576 the same season and was named to seven All-American teams. One honor that stands out that he was a semifinalist for the Dick Howser Trophy, which goes to the best collegiate baseball player.

Packard also set a school and conference record for most consecutive games with a hit, going 61-for-133 to the tune of a .469 batting average during that streak. It is an impressive resume and Chris and I had a chance to talk about his days at ECU in 2019 when he first came to West Michigan.

Defensively, he played in left field and DH and was on his way to another strong season before a wrist injury hampered his 2019 season. When he joined the Whitecaps later in the summer, it appears the injury was nothing more than a distant memory.

Bryant Packard Strengths:

As I have mentioned several times, his hit tool is rated his best and it showed, doing what a good college player does when they hit the Midwest League and that is hit. He can hit the ball to all fields with a good compact swing and hip turn as he swings the bat.

He has a lot of raw power and as you may have heard in the video we shot, he makes loud contact which has him around a 55 raw power tool on FanGraphs and our own Jake Boes gave him the same grade on Prospects Live. This a tool that will continue to develop.

Bryant Packard Weaknesses:

From when I saw him at West Michigan in 2019, he showed average speed than what was on the scouting report. I am not saying he is fast but he has good baseball instincts that will not clog up the base paths but it is an area of weakness.

His arm in left is considered below average in left field. He throws with accuracy to the cut off man and shows a good route to the ball. The transition to first will help him but it is yet to be known how the glove will play out there as this will be his first full season in the minors.

The adjustment to High-A was just a small sample size but against pitchers with better spin rates even in Low-A, he struggled. He does show a good eye at the plate so the near mid 20% strikeout rate in the minors is based on 39 games but something to keep your eye on.

Our take on Bryant Packard:

The Tigers had some good luck getting Packard where they did. He had no issues hitting in Connecticut and West Michigan in 2019. With a full season of minor league baseball coming up, fans can once again see what me, Trevor Hooth over at Bless You Boys/Prospects Live, and others like about Packard’s game, which is his swing.

His current projection has him graded as a platoon/bench player but if he can continue to make adjustments on the next level to the various harder off-speed offerings he will see and adjusting to a new position at first, he could be an average everyday regular.

For the rebuild to go over well, it’s the draft picks in the middle or later rounds that have to deliver a level of success. What is considered a “success”? Anything near a 2.0 WAR season, which is considered average. If Packard at least be a solid average major leaguer, it will give Detroit something to hang their hat on in terms of developing their own talent.

How many drafted players have made it to the league 4th round or later in terms of positional talent for the Tigers since 2014? The answer is Mike Gerber, who had a cup of coffee with the Tigers when they drafted him in the 15th round in 2014. Packard has the opportunity to change that narrative for Detroit to stick around for more than a cup of coffee if he can continue to hit.